Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbab49e7550ee4dc8e7cb58e7519b23c8d7413103cd5642c2aee30b6df2cd4b9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 16c | 722.55$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 10c | 400.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 7c | 199.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 8c | 162.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 161.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 157.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 133.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 44c | 123.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 15c | 122$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 17c | 119.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 116.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 74c | 112.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 71c | 107.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 99.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 25c | 85.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 15c | 84.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 79.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 74.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 69c | 72.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 70.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 49c | 70.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 62.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 63c | 59.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 77c | 47.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 30c | 37.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 62c | 30.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 78c | 28.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 58c | 25.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed No | 67c | 17.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed Yes | 79c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.