Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e3d6a21a209d7b528add68dc3e21740400283514d448da3e412d5eb06a3ab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,555$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 717.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 40c | 449$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.4 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 416$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 312.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 222.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 207.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 131.74$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 130.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 125.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 110.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 106.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 95.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 67c | 89.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 86.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 39c | 79.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked Yes | 17c | 77.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea7…1523backed Yes | 72c | 69.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 70c | 55.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 52.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 36c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 29c | 44.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 75c | 37.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 37.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 31c | 35.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 69c | 35.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 34.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 47c | 32.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 80c | 32.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 75c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 72c | 30.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 27.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 79c | 24.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 48c | 24.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 71c | 22.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 22.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 70c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 20.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…8fd0backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 68c | 19.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.