Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67fc12f7fc9e4cb7cdb7c7329474e737f15142170c7cf636216fd3edc95aa2ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 468.26$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 34c | 225.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 68c | 224.16$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 180.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 180$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 56c | 170.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…bf61backed No | 74c | 153.31$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 146.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 43c | 139.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 73c | 136.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 130.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 41c | 121.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 50c | 121.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 59c | 104$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 56c | 102.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 30c | 100.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 97.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 96.95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 19c | 90.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 89.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 57c | 85.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 26c | 84.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 46c | 82.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 44c | 79.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 67.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 78c | 64.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 63.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 17c | 60.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 55c | 59.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 64c | 59.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 73c | 58.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 58.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…319dbacked Yes | 53c | 57.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed Yes | 48c | 49.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 39c | 47.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 61c | 47.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed Yes | 58c | 44.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 54c | 44.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 43.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 48c | 43.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 70c | 43.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 26c | 42.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 44c | 42.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 37c | 42.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 54c | 40.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 38c | 40.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…3d7bbacked Yes | 40c | 39.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 40c | 37.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 35.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked No | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 74c | 33.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69af…0552backed Yes | 44c | 33.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 79c | 30.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 28.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 53c | 28.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 59c | 26.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 56c | 25.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…b912backed No | 58c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 17.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.