Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0daa2afdd58fe265b8057fb5eff2ec6d887a9bec93aa98001bb75f997a92f050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 8c | 227.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 210.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 12c | 155.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 37c | 149.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 33c | 149.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 34c | 145.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 142$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 139.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 10c | 112.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 48c | 109.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 75c | 94.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 90.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 82.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 48c | 69.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 36c | 64.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 35c | 63.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 75c | 62.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 44c | 62.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 64c | 59.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 56.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 65c | 55.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 35c | 52.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 44c | 49.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 49.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 61c | 49.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 33c | 44.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0a92backed Yes | 69c | 43.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 61c | 43.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 55c | 40.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 75c | 40.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 40.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 39.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 68c | 39.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 41c | 39.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 70c | 38.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 73c | 37.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 48c | 34.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 34.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 31.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 35c | 30.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 65c | 29.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 79c | 29.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 29.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 24.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 44c | 24.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 48c | 22.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 61c | 21.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…e3f0backed No | 67c | 21.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 20.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 65c | 18.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 68c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.