Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68353d6608bfcbd2d05e24f5518bb9136308f59787952aab8c4996a5f6d8307d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,293 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 367.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 292.07$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 268.56$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 29c | 267.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 27c | 258$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 75c | 220.04$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 74c | 216.46$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 200.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 192.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 190.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.54 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 80c | 172.85$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 64c | 153.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 26c | 151.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 144.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 39c | 142.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes | 44c | 137.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 35c | 133.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 129.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 57c | 122.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 121.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 58c | 119.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 67c | 115.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 40c | 108.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 48c | 103.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 95.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 65c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 34c | 93.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 90.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 71c | 87.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 83.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 61c | 82.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 81.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes | 65c | 77.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 38c | 74.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…388ebacked Yes | 69c | 72.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 43c | 72.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 43c | 69.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 69.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 63.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 46c | 60.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…307dbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 37c | 57.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 31c | 55.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 52c | 55.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 55c | 53.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed Yes | 47c | 53.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 38c | 52.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 39c | 51.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…c467backed Yes | 39c | 50.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 48.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 45.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 54c | 43.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…b128backed Yes | 77c | 42.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 41c | 40.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ac…31e0backed Yes | 41c | 36.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 58c | 34.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 79c | 31.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 69c | 30.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 57c | 29.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 70c | 29.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 57c | 28.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 24.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 45c | 24.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…7ed9backed Yes | 50c | 24.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 48c | 22.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 51c | 21.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…d85dbacked Yes | 80c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 59c | 16.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…a6c1backed Yes | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.