Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc66ee6755ed0464e952f33653db8821c20a3fb4daede8af8cfccddfdad334be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 20c | 550.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 275.37$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.65 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 18c | 271.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 223.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 31c | 202.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 27c | 193.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 190.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 54c | 187.83$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 75c | 171.06$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 55c | 164.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 18c | 158.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 156.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 142.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 28c | 133.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 131.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 44c | 129.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 129.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 129.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed No | 62c | 128.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 35c | 125.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 59c | 124.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 46c | 117.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 18c | 113.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…8d09backed No | 58c | 113.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 61c | 110.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 26c | 100.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 99.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 31c | 95.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 25c | 89.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 73.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 70.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 67.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 30c | 67.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 25c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 63.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 41c | 60.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 31c | 58.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…307dbacked Yes | 31c | 56.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 29c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 51.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 51.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 78c | 51.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 48.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 69c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 64c | 46.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 38c | 43.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…5a12backed No | 70c | 42.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 29c | 41.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 51c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 40c | 37.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…1a9ebacked Yes | 53c | 34.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed Yes | 30c | 33.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 60c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 61c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 77c | 28.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 63c | 27.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…f9acbacked No | 73c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.