TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

OpenAI Sora public release in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,383

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,355 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No22c9,117$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed40…bb9dbacked No7c6,059$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…3025backed No8c5,740$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33150%0 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4581…b50abacked No7c2,486$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77e3…868ebacked No24c1,673$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d8…daffbacked No24c1,671$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No15c1,624$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.176011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8752…e6e4backed No8c1,439$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No20c1,378$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b3e…3096backed Yes75c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes74c1,167$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.421136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5908…2f11backed No9c1,149$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No12c1,115$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.4757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x956f…e875backed Yes72c1,069$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.863100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89f1…89f3backed Yes62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3802420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes76c803.64$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e09…c03abacked No24c661.91$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8f…1134backed No24c600.39$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccaa…9066backed No16c519.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No26c499.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8e…c683backed No22c459.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb3f…ab7dbacked No28c450.59$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf233…6ab2backed Yes78c438.61$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked No23c410$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dba…7a15backed No7c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa72…1285backed No26c400$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2971…6295backed Yes77c382.93$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes75c350$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x125b…59acbacked Yes78c326.35$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0742…8a82backed No21c320.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No19c319.71$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2925731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked No16c314.52$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.886829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No22c280.37$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9272935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c9a…abc4backed No7c280.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No17c275.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.681735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-45.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f0…da29backed No45c224.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No20c195.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf162…b6b5backed Yes73c175.84$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.842123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3510…2238backed No30c168.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes51c152.24$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.264422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0287…4c73backed No27c150$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed No19c148.58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.53922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed No21c143.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6da6…55a0backed Yes73c140$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda8…9e58backed No32c120$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…75e5backed No24c117.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes72c105.41$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.022725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-57.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6336…b618backed No19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2916…752abacked No19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e36…92c2backed No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c7…801bbacked No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d4…a164backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No22c99.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed No21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-85.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes68c86.87$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.936053.3%32 W · 28 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+36.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x04ca…b4edbacked No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ce…28b1backed No23c73.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No16c72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52382.6%1 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-87.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No17c68.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6321125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd277…94d6backed No30c67.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf162…ba35backed Yes75c66.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24cc…d737backed Yes77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a7…75bdbacked Yes78c64.23$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e4…c8abbacked No18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f70…f5b3backed Yes73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a14…3c37backed Yes76c58.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda5…531fbacked Yes76c57.28$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2783…8321backed No24c55.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes77c55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6512839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No25c53.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.231020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x611b…ccfabacked No21c52.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No20c51.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1018544.3%82 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e2c…621ebacked Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe961…f8fcbacked Yes71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79a9…1e1dbacked Yes69c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes76c45.05$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.784233.3%14 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e6…1d2bbacked No24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked No26c44.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…c068backed Yes70c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d6…24aabacked No31c41.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+105.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf259…7592backed Yes67c39.34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.87955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c48…2a26backed Yes77c38.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b7…5010backed Yes80c31.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.41450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea4…e097backed No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9059…119dbacked Yes76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a6…31b9backed Yes74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a71…0f0fbacked Yes72c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab20…65fabacked Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf571…3a5dbacked Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b24…1738backed Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa2…b94fbacked Yes77c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes66c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.12933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9328…9d74backed Yes76c15.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.793100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78d5…06ffbacked Yes70c15.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x169b…c646backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…2689backed Yes77c14.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.