MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x687d9949786f12b40f9f37cd75b095b4cec6d51ea041819f40cc7f7a511246d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2358…8986backed Yes | 48c | 288.95$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 52c | 235.55$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.06 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 44c | 207.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Yes | 49c | 121.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…5a37backed No | 55c | 98.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 46c | 65.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…79b9backed No | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked No | 54c | 52.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 45c | 52.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…f91bbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 124 | 26.6%33 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed No | 54c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed No | 54c | 27.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padresthis page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.