MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd3e5c831b357b0de04da80fbaf4467a1bc540e628999ff4fd99f8090b2fe54c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 35c | 2,875$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.15 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 65c | 2,635$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.62 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 2,358$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 1,359$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 1,211$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 36c | 821.99$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.58 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 39c | 761.33$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.45 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…ba85backed Over | 42c | 474.52$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 360$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 228.36$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 72c | 216.31$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 51c | 197$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…bda7backed Over | 60c | 189.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af3…bfa1backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 171.3$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b36…56cebacked Over | 63c | 159.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 24c | 120.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 41c | 118.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…6bcfbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 58c | 98.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 46c | 77.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 44c | 76.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 35c | 64.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 61c | 63.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 54c | 55.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 62c | 40.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 25.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 48c | 21.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 48c | 21.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 71c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.