MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa66584d042fa53957a4f15bd1ac0448e49c96d58bb6de05946505bed392fdc15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 5,365$3,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,559.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 4,538$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 799.42$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.77 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 376.2$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 332.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.62 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 313$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 306.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed San Diego Padres | 26c | 206$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 119.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 119$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7599…4293backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 117.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 87.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 81.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 78.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed San Diego Padres | 26c | 52.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 50.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf5…4145backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 44.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 44.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 37.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 32.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 29.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 29.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Diego Padres | 35c | 29.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 26.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 24.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 17.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 17.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.