MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x687e941ca7938ce2959475c99392b7f243ece1ae05719fee4acea1a08a3a5128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 60c | 2,879$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.91 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 2,861$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.35 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 55c | 1,776$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.55 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 50c | 1,281$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.24 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 1,053$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 76c | 610$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.6 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…7a4abacked Over | 52c | 582.72$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.71 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 374.23$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.57 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 50c | 291.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.99 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 288.95$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 37c | 274.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 34c | 224.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 218.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 59c | 208.81$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…7ce7backed Under | 41c | 193.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…415cbacked Over | 33c | 190.36$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 42c | 178.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 49c | 178.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 153.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Under | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 43c | 72.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 71c | 61.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 43c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 54.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 53c | 52.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Over | 56c | 39.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…7210backed Under | 45c | 28.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…01a8backed Under | 44c | 26.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 45c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 25.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 69c | 24.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 66c | 24.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 46c | 24.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…3400backed Under | 45c | 22.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 62c | 19.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.