MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9139320f3fde4054f4db24a79e540117cfb2e44618658dcf0d5a5ddc7d97c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 2,647$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.73 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota Twins | 53c | 2,039$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.67 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Minnesota Twins | 66c | 854$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.45 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 767.62$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 719.62$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.07 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…71babacked Minnesota Twins | 46c | 711.47$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.03 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 662.65$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.11 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 462.74$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.22 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Minnesota Twins | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 351.31$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.96 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Cincinnati Reds | 17c | 317.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.74 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 281.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.01 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 263.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 262.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 195.56$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 178.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 175.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Twins | 34c | 170.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 170.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 76c | 127.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 124.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…772cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 117.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…7c7bbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 114.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Minnesota Twins | 26c | 100.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 79.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 65.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 53.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 53.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 49.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 47.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 45.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 43.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 43.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 38.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Minnesota Twins | 34c | 36.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Minnesota Twins | 54c | 33.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 32.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 29.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 28.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 22.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.