MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72e479d5437697b9382d0d441632bfcfcb67d918bdaa76b2cc09ffa11d03e167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 54c | 5,568$3,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.62 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 3,488$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883.46 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 53c | 3,325$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.07 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,964$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.44 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 1,741$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.92 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Under | 1c | 1,510$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,433$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.56 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 1,422$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 1,390$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 46c | 1,086$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.44 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 47c | 982.72$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.84 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 53c | 786.05$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.1 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 599.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 46c | 493.99$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.75 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 440.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.13 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 55c | 407.69$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.23 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 46c | 401.85$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 387.23$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.11 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 56c | 345.51$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.47 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 54c | 338.54$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.81 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 47c | 305.72$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.44 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 42c | 293.71$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.35 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 291.33$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.21 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Under | 68c | 289.16$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.14 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 52c | 235.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 38c | 209.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 53c | 208.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.07 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…5042backed Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 199.94$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…6886backed Under | 66c | 194.28$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 193.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…565fbacked Over | 47c | 178.15$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Under | 48c | 155.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 46c | 150.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 53c | 84.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 48c | 72.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 63.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 57c | 52.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 55c | 52.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 38c | 46.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 49c | 39.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 47c | 34.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 33.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked Under | 55c | 32.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 56c | 29.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 54c | 29.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 46c | 29.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 54c | 28.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9f…0f61backed Under | 51c | 27.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 47c | 26.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Over | 46c | 26.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 47c | 25.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 52c | 24.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…3266backed Under | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.