Champions League · resolved market
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 Real Madrid CF?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x689a0c66afdd3a18d4a750469d7d6ac341851f1498af57d92f161e973a3fd4e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd4f…515ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,059$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Yes | 5c | 1,793$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Yes | 4c | 1,284$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 540.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Yes | 3c | 418.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…9e46backed Yes | 5c | 416.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…8a93backed Yes | 5c | 393.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x894e…edfcbacked Yes | 3c | 342.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…3192backed Yes | 49c | 114.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f79…0307backed Yes | 15c | 89.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4db5…4d7bbacked No | 74c | 78.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…590cbacked Yes | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…e588backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked No | 57c | 25.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…21cbbacked No | 50c | 23.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…3b90backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…ae20backed No | 73c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 Real Madrid CF?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?Yes won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 1 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 2 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 3 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 Real Madrid CF?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.