Champions League · resolved market
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd88c2b8fed8f9e1f4075cebfa5a4bd1987895b146f4fb70b002efa6a6b5ca5e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x203d…2b2cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,414$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…515ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,403$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…3eabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,960$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Yes | 7c | 1,621$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…fdb1backed Yes | 8c | 1,230$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 8c | 1,132$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…da5abacked Yes | 6c | 1,066$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…0996backed Yes | 5c | 1,030$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…2c32backed Yes | 4c | 1,026$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 5c | 924.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 3c | 820$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…af3abacked Yes | 6c | 798.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…9e46backed Yes | 6c | 580.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 4c | 568.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…87dcbacked Yes | 6c | 496.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…3cd5backed Yes | 4c | 426.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c34…a10dbacked Yes | 6c | 417.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…8a93backed Yes | 5c | 352.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Yes | 6c | 349.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes | 7c | 343.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…32b5backed Yes | 6c | 302.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…8b6fbacked Yes | 8c | 236.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 6c | 220.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Yes | 6c | 188.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804a…9b39backed Yes | 8c | 177.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37d…1d3abacked Yes | 6c | 176.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Yes | 9c | 157.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 2 Real Madrid CF?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?Yes won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 1 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 2 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 3 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 3 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 3 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 Real Madrid CF?No won
- Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 3 Real Madrid CF?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.