South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x689be251f226ea384ee4df1e3570748ad967c652c4eb168f81e69527e92b58f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 2,786$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.88 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 6c | 1,124$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 35c | 550.68$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.19 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 10c | 436.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 15c | 319.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…262ebacked Over | 7c | 258.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 71c | 238.61$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 7c | 229.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…7f3fbacked Over | 29c | 164.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 130.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…23cfbacked Under | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 18c | 93.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 78c | 89.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc773…d55cbacked Over | 21c | 58.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Over | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Under | 32c | 43.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5636…e44cbacked Under | 78c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.