South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc4eab6887ba7c5a578e50e68d8ad8461d8fa11eb90030f90cb899386ffb3815
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,291$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.56 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Under | 52c | 1,165$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.03 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 41c | 959.56$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.57 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 749.94$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.13 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 573.37$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.87 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 44c | 508.78$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 50c | 502.58$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.36 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 33c | 498.08$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.88 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 50c | 487.68$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.23 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 16c | 413$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Under | 14c | 383.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 349.65$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.9 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 50c | 331.74$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.87 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 35c | 274.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 233.59$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…7f3fbacked Over | 50c | 232.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 215.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Over | 37c | 196.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3b…b37fbacked Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 173.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 44c | 164.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 52c | 159.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…d240backed Under | 45c | 149.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1707backed Under | 48c | 123.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked Under | 14c | 112.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +10.2wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…1a89backed Over | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 42c | 99.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 17c | 60.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 46c | 54.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…b8ccbacked Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +177.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 64c | 47.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 56c | 38.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed Under | 38c | 37.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…d3cbbacked Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935b…8f4fbacked Over | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 49c | 26.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…f611backed Under | 70c | 25.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 41c | 24.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…60acbacked Under | 64c | 21.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 58c | 20.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…c0ddbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 73c | 19.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.