Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b2cbaacd711c3601ef08447832bc24997a5d18f490b533eb19d0c845bcc28b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed No | 59c | 14,956$8,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,138.51 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Yes | 41c | 8,049$3,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,292.19 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 40c | 4,914$1,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,985.78 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed No | 59c | 3,165$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.76 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 41c | 3,105$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.05 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 60c | 1,602$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 8c | 1,490$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,333$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 807.38$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.52 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 621.14$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.24 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Yes | 38c | 542.47$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.14 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 3c | 487$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Yes | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.4wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 40c | 299.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.32 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 40c | 288.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Yes | 41c | 282.11$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 42c | 253$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 13c | 185$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 9c | 170.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…760dbacked Yes | 9c | 166.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 41c | 162.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 12c | 162.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 44c | 149.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed No | 61c | 133.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 61c | 91.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 62c | 74.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 58c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 42c | 66.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 46c | 65.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 38c | 60.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Yes | 41c | 53.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…a844backed Yes | 28c | 52.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 60c | 51.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 23c | 50.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ad…b33bbacked Yes | 42c | 48.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Yes | 41c | 46.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 62c | 46.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…1394backed Yes | 41c | 41.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 41c | 38.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 41c | 38.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Yes | 42c | 36.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 41c | 35.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 34c | 35.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 36c | 34.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed No | 61c | 32.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 43c | 30.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb2…73f5backed Yes | 46c | 28.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 41c | 28.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 47c | 23.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed No | 55c | 23.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.