NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68c24d31e2e6bfa3c9c602894deb938ed3f8fea5b7e2faa08ba1e098aae8c99b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,230 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 1,921$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.84 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,053$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.14 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 16c | 753.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.91 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Over | 43c | 467.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 15c | 346.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.44 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…aa33backed Under | 17c | 250$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 37c | 245.58$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 21c | 195.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.61 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8c…dfbebacked Under | 49c | 102.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Under | 47c | 101.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…6e70backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 59c | 96.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 17c | 90$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Over | 58c | 77.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Over | 43c | 69.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -67%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Under | 75c | 54.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 32c | 53.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 50c | 53.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 74c | 52.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 35c | 52.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…2af8backed Under | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 36c | 35.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 51c | 30.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 51c | 30.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 59c | 28.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 57c | 24.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 49c | 21.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 49c | 21.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Over | 70c | 15.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 68c | 15.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5this page
- Blues vs. DucksBlues won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.