NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c6ebbc22958bc5f984dbde38ed6824e38d09606eb31f69cf814cb35feffef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,146 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 52c | 1,519$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.45 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 49c | 1,248$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.56 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…d0e6backed Over | 50c | 1,026$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…8cb3backed Under | 52c | 1,010$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 958.25$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.22 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 53c | 679.25$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.25 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 46c | 397.18$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.34 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 23c | 387.41$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 323.21$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.37 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 259.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Under | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 69c | 208$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 80c | 134.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 50c | 107.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 54c | 98.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 53c | 64.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 61c | 51.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 39c | 51.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Under | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 38c | 49.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 52c | 48.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 48.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 52c | 45.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Under | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed Under | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +149.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 43c | 30.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…a255backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 49c | 26.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…2af8backed Under | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 65c | 21.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Blues vs. DucksBlues won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Under won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.