Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate William J. Pulte for HUD Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68ca2783acafebeea3e43a03573f3b9a7878849eeb3241accdb4c3bfebd3f533
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 12c | 6,542$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.64 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 30c | 1,610$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.17 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 1,280$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 77c | 1,158$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.16 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 39c | 682.1$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.28 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 13c | 571.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 19c | 567.29$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.79 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 16c | 318.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 314.35$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 65c | 301.83$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 29c | 262.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 18c | 252$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 25c | 121.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 34c | 116.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed No | 65c | 101.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 82.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3acf…ffb8backed No | 73c | 52.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…ba6cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate William J. Pulte for HUD Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for HUD Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Brian Montgomery for HUD Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Dana Wade for HUD Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Tim Scott for HUD Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.