Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for HUD Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed575f43c4a742990fb359be4ddbf1f23c577b3e4613876fa8154503241127af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 52c | 2,308$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.7 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 25c | 1,920$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.27 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 29c | 1,856$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.61 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,566$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.1 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 22c | 1,324$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.69 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 29c | 1,189$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.81 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 24c | 963.24$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.74 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 72c | 859.54$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.23 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 17c | 800$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 701.09$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.55 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 16c | 626$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 59c | 600$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.66 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 49c | 490$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 23c | 478.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 33c | 470.2$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.32 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…5f7bbacked Yes | 29c | 450$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb189…35ebbacked Yes | 27c | 424.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked No | 61c | 345.44$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 79c | 324.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 57c | 319.02$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.47 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 69c | 316.76$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.41 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 54c | 300.17$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed Yes | 21c | 196.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 60c | 157.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 48c | 155.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…925bbacked Yes | 33c | 153.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 37c | 148.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 47c | 141.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes | 35c | 121$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed No | 53c | 120.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c9…503cbacked No | 71c | 116.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 53c | 103.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…12d4backed Yes | 28c | 100.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Yes | 44c | 96.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 33c | 89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed No | 49c | 83.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 42c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked No | 45c | 62.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…fb75backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3acf…ffb8backed No | 72c | 53.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 47.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…9194backed Yes | 58c | 43.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…53d5backed Yes | 43c | 38.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1198backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 71c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 55c | 27.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…cc98backed Yes | 60c | 24.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Ben Carson for HUD Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Brian Montgomery for HUD Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Dana Wade for HUD Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Tim Scott for HUD Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate William J. Pulte for HUD Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.