Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68f47de05f6dc4c1098bcb86bbaa69b2c84c35a6ac9db28cfa6ef35f071e4df4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 55c | 885.17$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.76 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 58c | 422.86$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 312.06$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 212.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 51c | 199.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 198.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 45c | 143$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 74c | 132.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 120.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 46c | 111.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 48c | 105.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 16c | 97.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9463…b519backed Yes | 56c | 91.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 53c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 83.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3514…e337backed Yes | 64c | 76.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 72.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…0091backed No | 62c | 64.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 45c | 64.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed Yes | 48c | 62.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 49c | 58.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 56.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 45c | 56.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…0b12backed Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed Yes | 38c | 51.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 57c | 51.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 59c | 51.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 39c | 50.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 50c | 48.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 41c | 47.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 46.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 57c | 45.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…7e67backed Yes | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 48c | 41.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 62c | 40.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 39.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 53c | 39.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 37c | 36.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 33.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 42c | 31.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 48c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 51c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 55c | 27.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 48c | 26.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 24.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 47c | 21.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 53c | 21.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 57c | 21.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 50c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 18.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b2…31c9backed Yes | 56c | 18.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 60c | 18.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 60c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 56c | 18.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.