Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6b0402a4597ec13e0c2a6aa508ee5784a241571ac559c46aa6e6193237fbf40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 299.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 273$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 241.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…edc8backed Yes | 36c | 233.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9548…655fbacked Yes | 37c | 223.27$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 67c | 223.14$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 76c | 191.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 32c | 179.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 146$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 143.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 140.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 138.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 134$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 122.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 120.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 38c | 118.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 99.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 78.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 32c | 76.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 30c | 74.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 72.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 77c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 68c | 58.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…0b12backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 50.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 48.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 37c | 46.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 37c | 42.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 68c | 37.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 37.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 66c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 65c | 21.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 53c | 19.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc048…302ebacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 66c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c16…bb04backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.