Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68f7dc3ce41c4c40c05a06481a84ac9fd6821a628eb8b9019672faa7205c7017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 577.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 18c | 338.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 14c | 328.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes | 47c | 316.45$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 37c | 307.19$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 54c | 294.36$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 270.08$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 15c | 262.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 254.04$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 66c | 248.14$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 235.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 36c | 230.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 189.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 25c | 162.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed No | 69c | 144.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed No | 69c | 124.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 122.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 25c | 121.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 116.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…12c5backed Yes | 33c | 114$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 113.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 110.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 48c | 103.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 102.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 55c | 101.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 100.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 53c | 98.92$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…45e2backed Yes | 55c | 96.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 94.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 19c | 85.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 53c | 83.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 77.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 54c | 76.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 28c | 76.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 42c | 72.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 71.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 36c | 69.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 67.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 64c | 65.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 38c | 65.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 50c | 64.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 26c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 55c | 61.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…1fcbbacked Yes | 55c | 61.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 57.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 48c | 56.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 55.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 54.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 49c | 48.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 37c | 48.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…5623backed No | 45c | 46.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 45.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 44.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 35c | 43.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 42.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 35c | 42.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 68c | 40.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 36.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed Yes | 36c | 36.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 76c | 35.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 34c | 35.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…48e9backed Yes | 39c | 34.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 32c | 34.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 47c | 31.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6d…d234backed No | 62c | 30.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 35c | 30.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4095…24e2backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 26.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…5d52backed No | 68c | 22.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 69c | 21.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.