Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f36f0380e74355b8c95a384fd410b692fb6a9a28af802932e98ecdc687b9555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,052$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 675.22$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.91 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 35c | 628.29$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.27 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 446.64$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 393.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 59c | 383.54$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.7 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 39c | 377.61$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.95 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 365.54$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 77c | 363.66$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.41 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 47c | 304.16$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.47 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 57c | 296.59$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.69 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 248.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 244.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.87 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 236.78$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 51c | 234.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.33 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 23c | 230.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes | 22c | 223.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 7c | 220.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 214.39$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…7d0dbacked No | 66c | 196.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 191.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 23c | 190.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…bbe3backed Yes | 58c | 176.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes | 56c | 175$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 11c | 165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…1fcbbacked Yes | 48c | 156.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 72c | 145.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 71c | 141.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 39c | 140.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7834…4322backed Yes | 20c | 140.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 136.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 44c | 128.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed Yes | 78c | 128.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 37c | 125$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 10c | 124.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 41c | 120.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 15c | 117$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 41c | 110$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 108.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 59c | 105.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 30c | 105.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 103.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked No | 56c | 99.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 96.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 91.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 55c | 90.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 31c | 89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 86.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 36c | 86.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 60c | 83.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 61c | 82.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 64c | 80.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed Yes | 69c | 79.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 43c | 76.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…b0ffbacked Yes | 68c | 73.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 28c | 71.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 42c | 70.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 59c | 69.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…12c5backed Yes | 72c | 69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 40c | 68.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 26c | 67.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 52c | 60.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 49c | 57.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 79c | 56.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 55.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488b…d937backed Yes | 76c | 52.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 67c | 51.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a2…8e75backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…d3aabacked Yes | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 36c | 46.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 66c | 45.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 66c | 45.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 61c | 45.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked No | 67c | 41.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 69c | 39.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e60backed Yes | 29c | 37.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7475…dd59backed Yes | 29c | 37.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 70c | 35.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 48c | 35.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 42c | 35.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.