TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Senators

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Senatorsof Lightning, Senators
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,596

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x245b…00c5backed Lightning57c11,038$6,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,281.318749.4%43 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning57c10,418$5,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,927.71,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked Lightning57c7,504$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3002864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Senators42c6,593$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,805.7492848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe829…f91cbacked Lightning61c4,784$2,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,896.254751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bf45backed Lightning57c4,386$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Lightning29c3,943$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.3217448.9%85 W · 89 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Senators40c3,584$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,146.2513845.7%63 W · 75 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Senators42c3,140$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.4749351.3%253 W · 240 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Senators43c3,045$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.0311354%61 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cfe…d7b7backed Lightning56c2,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf89f…e5a8backed Senators44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Senators52c2,484$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.421,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Lightning42c2,200$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.1824457.4%140 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x519f…2af7backed Senators46c2,177$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.657044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Senators44c2,108$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.8713756.2%77 W · 60 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Lightning55c2,016$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.6510546.7%49 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Senators43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14021048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Senators45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.9924546.1%113 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning54c1,700$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.9966951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe84…779ebacked Senators44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Senators43c1,487$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.6284051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Senators44c1,484$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.597651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4c…5f4bbacked Senators45c1,400$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7701100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c19…c038backed Lightning55c1,400$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6760…2e12backed Lightning56c1,362$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.631241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Senators43c1,306$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.391,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0360…7be1backed Senators46c1,229$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.548139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61d…22f6backed Senators44c1,196$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.3330549.2%150 W · 155 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe696…36a0backed Lightning54c1,085$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.771050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0bf7…7894backed Senators46c1,085$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.77955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Senators43c1,033$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.6179251.1%405 W · 387 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Senators43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57085148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa10d…acc6backed Lightning58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5805757.9%33 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0417…a81ebacked Lightning54c999.96$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.981330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bab…b470backed Senators46c999.96$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.981070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+31.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Senators63c760.53$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.013,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d8c…726cbacked Lightning29c750$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.668145.7%37 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33f…c25ebacked Senators69c727.88$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.884163.4%26 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Senators45c657.71$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.91,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Senators43c635$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.9575155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7662…356bbacked Senators44c599.82$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.920649.5%102 W · 104 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Senators45c564.89$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.2429748.8%145 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Lightning20c487.65$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5341340%165 W · 248 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Senators43c464.98$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.2537738.7%146 W · 231 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lightning20c436.76$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.361,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17150857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Lightning45c264.26$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8523761.6%146 W · 91 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Senators44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.271,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12de…2780backed Senators44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be5…8491backed Senators44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+48.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…bc89backed Lightning61c215.48$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.141921.1%4 W · 15 L-6.3wins-0.33per pick54cpaid-63.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd0b0…276fbacked Senators45c206.18$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+70.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Lightning58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11637254.3%202 W · 170 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Senators43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11450049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Lightning55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Lightning56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009149.5%45 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64e…bf3ebacked Lightning56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24b6…e624backed Senators46c170$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.81050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf00e…884cbacked Lightning54c170$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.81553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Senators77c165.72$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1213754%74 W · 63 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa61f…7ceabacked Lightning54c158$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.321464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+39.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ed…0426backed Senators46c158$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.321346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Senators43c154$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7860549.3%298 W · 307 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Senators52c152.89$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2213348.1%64 W · 69 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x750c…b00abacked Senators45c152.22$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.722751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f4…0336backed Lightning53c150.53$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.211248.2%54 W · 58 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8011…e98ebacked Senators62c149.88$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.559863.3%62 W · 36 L+13.2wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+27.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaa6a…8dc5backed Senators46c141.3$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf07b…60a3backed Lightning55c136.36$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754257.1%24 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf716…7667backed Lightning57c132.89$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.75850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Senators46c130.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.437545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x621d…2e43backed Senators43c127.56$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.713100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+84.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20f2…f805backed Senators43c126.23$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning55c118.58$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2257238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2171…bc1fbacked Senators43c114.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.47666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Senators45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.111,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0550…1e82backed Lightning54c111$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4302…1216backed Senators45c111$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Senators44c108.61$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.948854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa64…9f30backed Lightning55c105.45$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0735…da59backed Lightning55c104.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.562227.3%6 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-55.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa30a…37afbacked Senators44c103.25$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa47d…c6acbacked Lightning56c102.32$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.32050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c3…4896backed Senators44c102.27$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.274100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+99.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb299…4a62backed Lightning55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5573157.5%420 W · 311 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked Lightning58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587651.3%39 W · 37 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d44…b15ebacked Lightning51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517550.7%38 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee6b…07d7backed Lightning56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d12…db9bbacked Lightning56c97.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…879dbacked Lightning57c96.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x991f…a469backed Senators45c93$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e31…84f1backed Lightning54c93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e19…dbf2backed Senators45c92.76$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+83.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x850e…39eebacked Senators45c88.27$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.552250%11 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ad…48d1backed Lightning57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe649…5f89backed Senators46c87.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.575100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+119.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd4f…2ce5backed Lightning58c87.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.62425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd4d…4316backed Senators45c86.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+91.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c5…b66cbacked Lightning57c84.14$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.