MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6911610b48f191dc18a5cd702b8f253275c3470f605f941986b0d1c3232d5f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 1,932$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.4 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 57c | 1,228$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.07 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 54c | 1,058$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.97 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 56c | 1,051$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.63 | 624 | 47.6%297 W · 327 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 48c | 605.26$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.73 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 5c | 476.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 43c | 374.2$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.44 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 43c | 132.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 57c | 124.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 52c | 113.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 103.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Under | 18c | 79.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 61c | 74.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 1,376 | 54.3%747 W · 629 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 47c | 69.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 44c | 45.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 43c | 28.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,206 | 29.1%351 W · 855 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Over | 45c | 28.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd5…04e1backed Under | 57c | 26.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 57c | 26.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 44c | 24.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1b25backed Under | 59c | 19.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. New York MetsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 14.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 15.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.