MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4721de620e8017350d46bd2e8aa9a8fcfea8159fb2f68bca2ff4fa7498200f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof New York Mets, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets | 41c | 3,178$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.92 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Athletics | 59c | 2,603$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.37 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed New York Mets | 43c | 2,308$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.1 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3918…b552backed New York Mets | 27c | 1,603$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 13c | 1,509$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Athletics | 57c | 1,174$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.76 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 57c | 1,005$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked New York Mets | 43c | 702.24$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.31 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 76c | 605.23$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Athletics | 57c | 590.54$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.93 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Athletics | 61c | 537$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.49 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…a124backed New York Mets | 39c | 481.7$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed New York Mets | 31c | 363.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.92 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 55c | 321.47$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked New York Mets | 45c | 316.17$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 55c | 309.42$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.14 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed New York Mets | 7c | 288.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 57c | 247.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 61c | 236.78$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed New York Mets | 42c | 230.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Athletics | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Athletics | 67c | 199.74$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked New York Mets | 18c | 196.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Athletics | 59c | 133.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics | 59c | 121.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Athletics | 59c | 120.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed New York Mets | 10c | 111.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Athletics | 59c | 97.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed New York Mets | 39c | 64.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Athletics | 58c | 62.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed New York Mets | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets | 42c | 49.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 41c | 49.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics | 58c | 48.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Athletics | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked New York Mets | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Athletics | 63c | 45.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 36c | 41.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…098abacked Athletics | 58c | 40.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Athletics | 59c | 39.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked New York Mets | 40c | 35.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets | 41c | 35.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Athletics | 58c | 34.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked New York Mets | 42c | 32.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Athletics | 59c | 29.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed New York Mets | 48c | 29.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed New York Mets | 46c | 29.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Athletics | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Athletics | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Athletics | 59c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. New York MetsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 14.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 15.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.