MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa460a691ae9f6a7dec8366e827f48798ff124b031488f5ec6fcdea245f652f26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 54c | 22,565$12,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,351.51 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 19,516$9,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,324.25 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 53c | 10,272$5,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,827.81 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 9,456$4,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,444.41 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 53c | 6,275$3,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950.29 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 42c | 4,262$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 48c | 2,723$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.2 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 52c | 2,673$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.96 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,886$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 42c | 1,072$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.38 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 1,020$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56de…bc32backed Under | 47c | 968.2$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.05 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 679.24$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.24 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 54c | 270.11$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 233.23$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Over | 53c | 146.96$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.07 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 145.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 52c | 144$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 52c | 140.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 46c | 132.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…4e5fbacked Over | 53c | 127.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 107.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62db…d58ebacked Under | 48c | 101.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 67c | 99.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…26dcbacked Under | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 47c | 83.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 42c | 81.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeda…6595backed Under | 48c | 80.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 42c | 72.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Over | 53c | 59.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 47c | 56.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Over | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 48c | 53.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 49.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 49c | 45.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 47c | 43.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Under | 49c | 41.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…0888backed Under | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 52c | 37.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 42c | 34.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 40c | 33.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 62c | 29.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 42c | 29.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6d7bbacked Over | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 47c | 24.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. New York MetsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 14.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 15.5Over won
- Athletics vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-5.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.