MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6918cb07247acd25d8c1905f854fe24943ce9b8d7e6895f1ee75acd3a1b00467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 30c | 10,244$3,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,065.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 9,853$6,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,876.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 4,872$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.33 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 3,012$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.42 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 1,107$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 1,028$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.67 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 608.37$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.77 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 580$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 426.01$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.71 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 355.56$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 5c | 262.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 218.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Chicago Cubs | 31c | 146.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Milwaukee Brewers | 58c | 121.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 117.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 111.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 102$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 102$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 99.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 67.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 54.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 54.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…d09bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 30c | 47.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Chicago Cubs | 32c | 42.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Chicago Cubs | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 33.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 32.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 25.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eda…fb8ebacked Chicago Cubs | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 24.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 22.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 22.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-5.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.