Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x691cadb566f9bbf1271497fe20ad2f4688d09c6889b0c0b09181c144cbc03431
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 4c | 489.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 342.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 70c | 312.35$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 30c | 292.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 174.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 55c | 158.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 62c | 158.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 66c | 112.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 106.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 106.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 75c | 97.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…ee31backed Yes | 13c | 84.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 34c | 82.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 63c | 79.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 14c | 74.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 60c | 58.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 57.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 51.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 49.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 40c | 31.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 25.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3189…562dbacked Yes | 68c | 22.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 19.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 78c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…0ce5backed No | 66c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed Yes | 70c | 15.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.