Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x135c94d66caa08912ca958ad5f3c0ed75a67aaf9900cf36dcd6557a5f1c06b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 645.28$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.75 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 72c | 423.88$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.61 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 27c | 302.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 8c | 255.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 208.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 8c | 201.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 169.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 160$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 155.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 150.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 37c | 133.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 122.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 119.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 42c | 118.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 34c | 115.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 110.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 56c | 104.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 16c | 102.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 95.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 92.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 26c | 91.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 86.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 74c | 83.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 41c | 81.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 76.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 70.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 77c | 65.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 59.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 58.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 57.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 54.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 60c | 45.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 41.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 41c | 36.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 43c | 35.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 43c | 31.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 31.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 60c | 30.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 27.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 27.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 77c | 26.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 40c | 26.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked No | 58c | 24.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 77c | 22.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 59c | 22.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 65c | 18.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.