Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d37027fe024639c4622751cdc70ce122f91ace7df02b4619b218d2b06db2c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 15c | 252.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 233.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 217.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 38c | 179.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 149.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 144.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 74c | 135.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 120.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 16c | 110.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 22c | 108.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 11c | 100.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 35c | 89.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 51c | 83.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 35c | 81.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 81.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 38c | 71.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 69.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 63.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 26c | 61.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 76c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 30c | 58.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 79c | 55.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 79c | 54.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…237cbacked Yes | 77c | 52.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 71c | 52.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 26c | 48.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 45.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 48c | 43.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 41.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 41c | 39.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 53c | 36.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 68c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…d0a3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…0f46backed Yes | 57c | 19.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 19.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 64c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 73c | 13.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.