MLB · resolved market
NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6930c84497b05a7088bd9a032dfd592a3995a195ec40d557fab2765a70279224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7db…ee3ebacked No | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Yes | 51c | 2,040$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.5 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Yes | 51c | 349.42$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 54c | 332.51$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.56 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Yes | 51c | 270.8$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.11 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 46c | 231.38$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Yes | 53c | 183.23$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 45c | 149.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Yes | 55c | 141.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 47c | 136.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 51c | 133.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 47c | 90.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 46c | 85.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…e6b8backed No | 50c | 69.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Yes | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed Yes | 52c | 49.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Yes | 50c | 44.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 53c | 30.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaef4…e208backed No | 50c | 29.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padresthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.