MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb796fee2c956480fd7a6f0e657c131cfb779fbb995b4c0ef54f72167035ae79f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa991…62c7backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,265$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 916.98$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.19 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 8c | 793.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 713.11$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 696.43$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.82 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 10c | 373.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 262.28$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 206.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed San Francisco Giants | 18c | 201.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 142.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 132.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 89.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 79.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 78.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 76.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 48.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 45.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 40.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked San Francisco Giants | 51c | 23.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 22.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresNo won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.