MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d19d6fe5e4d9034e276601af614452a8f05a982f4a5385902d7e78e0963f22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 57c | 3,964$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.38 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 2,514$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.49 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 7c | 2,040$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 45c | 2,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.96 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 5c | 1,165$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.87 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +339.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 45c | 727.08$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.18 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199a…b9d4backed Under | 41c | 528.66$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 13c | 473.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 415.97$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.03 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 359.72$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.87 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 76c | 356.01$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 75c | 328.61$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.24 | 947 | 34.4%326 W · 621 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 9c | 258.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 213.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Over | 44c | 195.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 19c | 183.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 43c | 171.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 30c | 168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 56c | 133.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 56c | 133.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Under | 56c | 133.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 56c | 133.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 56c | 133.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 56c | 133.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 56c | 133.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 56c | 133.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Under | 56c | 133.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 44c | 123.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 45c | 92.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 53c | 91.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Under | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 80c | 73.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Over | 46c | 62.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Under | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 57c | 40.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 57c | 38.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 56c | 37.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…3973backed Under | 56c | 31.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 27.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387b…fd56backed Under | 56c | 23.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 56c | 20.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresNo won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.