Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6935f2b1b3d47fc66c57d1cf755ed2dbafb68ddb34413d2d32b93299210a0920
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 36c | 4,446$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.05 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 1,282$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.18 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…b97cbacked Under | 68c | 1,034$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Under | 66c | 800$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.74 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 36c | 528.72$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 10c | 514.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 80c | 430.21$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 64c | 405$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 35c | 333$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 301 | 49.5%149 W · 152 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Under | 80c | 247.77$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…87acbacked Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 34c | 147.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 36c | 139.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 32.9%75 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Over | 32c | 134.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Over | 37c | 132.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 72c | 92.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 34c | 85.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 67c | 74.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 65c | 63.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 34c | 61.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 65c | 53.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 35c | 53.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…8e6fbacked Over | 34c | 44.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 57.6%144 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Over | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 36c | 34.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…36f3backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…2b66backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 65c | 25.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…01fdbacked Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…ef4cbacked Under | 68c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.