Spread: Furman Paladins (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x693e53e308dee136ebff59da7dc0924485ef55c56b893831374751466a518075

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Mercer Bearsof Furman Paladins, Mercer Bears
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,598
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,597

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,598 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc880…a622backed Furman Paladins	46c	265$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.9	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Furman Paladins	43c	249.99$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.5	401	47.6%191 W · 210 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mercer Bears	57c	242$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.06	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mercer Bears	54c	180.86$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.71	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Furman Paladins	46c	144$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.24	83	45.8%38 W · 45 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa521…4599backed Furman Paladins	41c	135$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.35	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed Furman Paladins	46c	128$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.88	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Furman Paladins	46c	127$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.42	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9773…67e8backed Furman Paladins	45c	125$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.25	53	37.7%20 W · 33 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Furman Paladins	46c	90$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Furman Paladins	45c	88.38$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.77	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5956…e127backed Mercer Bears	56c	88$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.83	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cf9…1abfbacked Furman Paladins	41c	87$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.67	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+3.4wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Mercer Bears	52c	80$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.4	71	46.5%33 W · 38 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7563…1fb3backed Furman Paladins	46c	79$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.34	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed Furman Paladins	43c	77$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.11	66	48.5%32 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Furman Paladins	44c	66$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.28	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Furman Paladins	47c	63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.61	635	51.5%327 W · 308 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf572…065abacked Furman Paladins	42c	63$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…ecf3backed Furman Paladins	46c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	67	43.3%29 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Furman Paladins	46c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf3e…390fbacked Mercer Bears	54c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Furman Paladins	42c	56$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.52	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Mercer Bears	59c	55$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.65	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked Furman Paladins	46c	53$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x597f…e9cfbacked Mercer Bears	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed Mercer Bears	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf683…f2dfbacked Mercer Bears	54c	47$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.62	27	70.4%19 W · 8 L	+4.1wins	+0.15per pick	55cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5253…b898backed Mercer Bears	54c	46$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.16	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x14cd…1716backed Mercer Bears	54c	46$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.16	38	68.4%26 W · 12 L	+5.9wins	+0.16per pick	53cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb990…3d1cbacked Mercer Bears	55c	46$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.7	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Mercer Bears	52c	45$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2348…9d10backed Mercer Bears	54c	44$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.24	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98cd…9417backed Mercer Bears	54c	44$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.24	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-3.5wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7399…fe96backed Mercer Bears	54c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.4	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96d2…dc9bbacked Mercer Bears	54c	39$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.94	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e78…fcb4backed Mercer Bears	54c	37$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.02	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1488…0672backed Furman Paladins	46c	36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e29…c992backed Mercer Bears	57c	35$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6132…7665backed Mercer Bears	52c	33$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.84	31	67.7%21 W · 10 L	+5.6wins	+0.18per pick	50cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1313…866abacked Mercer Bears	54c	31$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.26	43	62.8%27 W · 16 L	+4.7wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Furman Paladins	45c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	-9.2wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-26%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0b5f…b793backed Mercer Bears	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bd…8deabacked Mercer Bears	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x891e…ea69backed Furman Paladins	46c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c3…eb62backed Mercer Bears	54c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94d…2b20backed Mercer Bears	59c	29$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.89	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0f…7ca5backed Mercer Bears	54c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.34	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1670…d6a2backed Mercer Bears	54c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.34	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521c…64d2backed Mercer Bears	54c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…de52backed Mercer Bears	56c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.74	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf012…6d13backed Furman Paladins	46c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…9f7cbacked Mercer Bears	54c	27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.42	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ec…06aabacked Mercer Bears	57c	26$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.24	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae69…0c24backed Mercer Bears	57c	26$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.18	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb5…6a69backed Mercer Bears	59c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.25	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4669…785ebacked Mercer Bears	54c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-5.1wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8380…1866backed Furman Paladins	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	33	63.6%21 W · 12 L	+3.1wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f6c…ac71backed Mercer Bears	54c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed Mercer Bears	58c	24$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.08	35	68.6%24 W · 11 L	+5.1wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43dc…88cfbacked Mercer Bears	56c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.68	38	71.1%27 W · 11 L	+6.9wins	+0.18per pick	53cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Furman Paladins	46c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf21a…0751backed Mercer Bears	54c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.58	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed Mercer Bears	54c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.58	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9d9…6febbacked Mercer Bears	54c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.12	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	+4.1wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7500…ae85backed Mercer Bears	54c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	33	72.7%24 W · 9 L	+5.5wins	+0.17per pick	56cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa032…9b15backed Mercer Bears	54c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06b1…614cbacked Mercer Bears	54c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd595…7893backed Mercer Bears	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6098…d746backed Mercer Bears	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4390…e842backed Mercer Bears	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51e5…9fcabacked Mercer Bears	54c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.74	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x480a…e3c9backed Mercer Bears	59c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.79	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+3.9wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14c2…6070backed Mercer Bears	54c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.74	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Mercer Bears	58c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Furman Paladins (-4.5)this page
Mercer Bears vs. Furman PaladinsFurman Paladins won
Mercer Bears vs. Furman Paladins: O/U 153.5Under won
Spread: Furman Paladins (-2.5)Mercer Bears won
Spread: Furman Paladins (-3.5)Mercer Bears won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Furman Paladins (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event