Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Mercer Bears vs. Furman Paladins: O/U 153.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777509669c6d161a3774c76fd508754850211ec9672f326854863b74df21db58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 428.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.08 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 49c | 336$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.74 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Over | 50c | 236$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Over | 49c | 155$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 47c | 144$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Over | 50c | 135$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Over | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Over | 49c | 127$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Under | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Over | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 47c | 89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Over | 49c | 79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 47c | 68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Over | 52c | 67.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Over | 50c | 67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Over | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Over | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Under | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +6.0wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Over | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Under | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Under | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Under | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Under | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Over | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Under | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Under | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…1d9bbacked Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Under | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Over | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Under | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Under | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed Under | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Under | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Under | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked Over | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Over | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…2117backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mercer Bears vs. Furman Paladins: O/U 153.5this page
- Mercer Bears vs. Furman PaladinsFurman Paladins won
- Spread: Furman Paladins (-2.5)Mercer Bears won
- Spread: Furman Paladins (-3.5)Mercer Bears won
- Spread: Furman Paladins (-4.5)Mercer Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.