Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Furman Paladins (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2bdba38f2632f99735cc18030f5c522f31175b333e020f654d7fc8ec9808d4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercer Bearsof Furman Paladins, Mercer Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Mercer Bears | 52c | 1,039$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.72 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Furman Paladins | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Furman Paladins | 48c | 502.5$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.2 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Furman Paladins | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Mercer Bears | 46c | 280$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Furman Paladins | 47c | 273$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Furman Paladins | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Mercer Bears | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mercer Bears | 54c | 177.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Furman Paladins | 49c | 169$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mercer Bears | 54c | 162$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Furman Paladins | 50c | 148$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Furman Paladins | 45c | 144$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Mercer Bears | 54c | 131.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Furman Paladins | 49c | 128$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Mercer Bears | 47c | 109$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Mercer Bears | 49c | 92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Mercer Bears | 54c | 91.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Furman Paladins | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Furman Paladins | 44c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Mercer Bears | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Furman Paladins | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Furman Paladins | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Mercer Bears | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Furman Paladins | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Furman Paladins | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Furman Paladins | 45c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Mercer Bears | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Mercer Bears | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Mercer Bears | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Mercer Bears | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Furman Paladins | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Mercer Bears | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Mercer Bears | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…0b39backed Mercer Bears | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Mercer Bears | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Mercer Bears | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Mercer Bears | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Mercer Bears | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…a337backed Mercer Bears | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Furman Paladins | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Mercer Bears | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Mercer Bears | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Furman Paladins | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Mercer Bears | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Furman Paladins | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Furman Paladins | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Mercer Bears | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Mercer Bears | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Furman Paladins | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Furman Paladins | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Furman Paladins | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Furman Paladins | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Mercer Bears | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Mercer Bears | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Furman Paladins | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Mercer Bears | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Furman Paladins | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Mercer Bears | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Mercer Bears | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Mercer Bears | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Mercer Bears | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Mercer Bears | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Furman Paladins (-3.5)this page
- Mercer Bears vs. Furman PaladinsFurman Paladins won
- Mercer Bears vs. Furman Paladins: O/U 153.5Under won
- Spread: Furman Paladins (-2.5)Mercer Bears won
- Spread: Furman Paladins (-4.5)Mercer Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.