Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x694568597bc0ec28051cdcb3157a6f1b9bac43da5f773514513adb4ee521c2dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zero Tenacityof Zero Tenacity, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed summer bear | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked summer bear | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8e…ce7dbacked Zero Tenacity | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed summer bear | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed summer bear | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed summer bear | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked summer bear | 22c | 1,428$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.66 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…6091backed summer bear | 35c | 1,146$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked summer bear | 42c | 1,047$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.73 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Zero Tenacity | 74c | 753.69$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Zero Tenacity | 69c | 699.99$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked summer bear | 33c | 687.68$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.35 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Zero Tenacity | 80c | 670$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked summer bear | 7c | 556.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked summer bear | 37c | 542.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked summer bear | 22c | 524.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Zero Tenacity | 78c | 520.62$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Zero Tenacity | 63c | 478.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.53 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Zero Tenacity | 59c | 471.37$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.6 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked summer bear | 27c | 414.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Zero Tenacity | 73c | 410$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Zero Tenacity | 77c | 360.48$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Zero Tenacity | 57c | 310$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…cd7ebacked Zero Tenacity | 62c | 245$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Zero Tenacity | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 280 | 44.3%124 W · 156 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed summer bear | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637b…948bbacked Zero Tenacity | 62c | 193$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Zero Tenacity | 68c | 183.56$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Zero Tenacity | 69c | 183.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Zero Tenacity | 69c | 181.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…477bbacked Zero Tenacity | 71c | 177.24$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Zero Tenacity | 64c | 170$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked summer bear | 32c | 164.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Zero Tenacity | 64c | 162.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed summer bear | 14c | 157.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed summer bear | 26c | 152.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed summer bear | 31c | 139.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed Zero Tenacity | 76c | 132.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 210 | 47.6%100 W · 110 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed summer bear | 25c | 120.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…6197backed Zero Tenacity | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…4fb8backed summer bear | 31c | 112.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed summer bear | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa091…f1c1backed summer bear | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Zero Tenacity | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Zero Tenacity | 79c | 88.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed summer bear | 39c | 81.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed summer bear | 20c | 81.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed summer bear | 18c | 79.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc1…7f52backed Zero Tenacity | 64c | 67.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b3…b86cbacked summer bear | 33c | 59.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Zero Tenacity | 62c | 56.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Zero Tenacity | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked summer bear | 41c | 42.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…5146backed Zero Tenacity | 78c | 41.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 253 | 56.5%143 W · 110 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked summer bear | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Zero Tenacity | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…a6c1backed Zero Tenacity | 63c | 37.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…a3d5backed Zero Tenacity | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Zero Tenacity | 64c | 26.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Zero Tenacity | 53c | 24.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1b…4ea6backed Zero Tenacity | 69c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Zero Tenacity | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Zero Tenacity | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Zero Tenacity | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Zero Tenacity | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Zero Tenacity | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 105 | 61%64 W · 41 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Zero Tenacity | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group AZero Tenacity won
- Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 WinnerZero Tenacity won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.