Middle East · resolved market
Hezbollah enters Israel in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6959379277bfd6cfcdb2fd0e9706d3b846cb77322c997805c0933188102d0ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 8c | 6,102$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.18 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 5,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 18c | 3,192$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.92 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,120$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 3c | 1,401$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 7c | 1,338$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes | 14c | 1,173$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 12c | 949.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 731.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 10c | 488.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab7…7177backed Yes | 13c | 471.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 16c | 450.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…123ebacked Yes | 8c | 426.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 6c | 412.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 17c | 299.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…45b2backed Yes | 17c | 276.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 10c | 258.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…3f13backed Yes | 11c | 258$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23b…8b75backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…64c7backed Yes | 6c | 239.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a4…bdf5backed Yes | 9c | 216.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…63b0backed Yes | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…244fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 18c | 199.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf853…66f0backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b8…6bfbbacked Yes | 19c | 154.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 15c | 148.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…4e2bbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 12c | 110.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 16c | 102.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x351f…6815backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc4…7c35backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf087…40f5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…754cbacked Yes | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 24c | 83.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…0d45backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…1605backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.