MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69cb433d57a85652c225cc32545676484f520204666c76c9077b99ecc56862a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 10,192$5,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,650.39 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 8,458$3,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,597.49 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 2,099$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.79 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 43c | 2,014$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.42 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 56c | 1,966$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 43c | 1,901$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.39 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 47c | 1,661$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.34 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 39c | 1,223$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.07 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 32c | 796.93$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.53 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 67c | 505$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 64c | 382$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.72 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Over | 65c | 228.19$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 43c | 215.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Over | 47c | 212.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.87 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 68c | 155$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 68c | 123.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 76c | 118$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under | 34c | 110.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 107.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Over | 48c | 105.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Over | 48c | 105.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Over | 48c | 105.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 68c | 99.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 71c | 80.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 69.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Under | 39c | 56.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 60c | 53.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 44c | 42.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…5d40backed Over | 69c | 41.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 72c | 38.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 59c | 34.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed Under | 44c | 27.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 46c | 23.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 47c | 22.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 64c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 64c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 68c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.