MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bce258ebe1af0a01b6958f299eb1c9525e8822c910bba662b207b6dd37be34f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ee2…e88fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 1,945$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 1,745$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.5 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 1,672$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.2 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 1,357$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.62 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 1,348$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.93 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 1,107$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.31 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 1,092$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.83 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd437…ba37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 900.96$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.77 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.71 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 349$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.89 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 330.5$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 324.95$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 323.86$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 269.09$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.44 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 264.07$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.01 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 257.97$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 220.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.73 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 17c | 203$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 172.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 109.64$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 94.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 78.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 72.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 72.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 66.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 64.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 42c | 51.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…05ecbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…a97ebacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…7c8bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 42.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 38.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 36.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 36.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…aeb3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 28.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…4724backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 60cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 21.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.