Mls · resolved market
Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69d80c5f7e957cdffb40eec855c58db41059c8616dfbbffcbeadc169812b5f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Unionof Orlando City SC, Philadelphia Union
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Orlando City SC | 14c | 1,124$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.56 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Philadelphia Union | 72c | 469$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Orlando City SC | 2c | 462.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Orlando City SC | 30c | 439$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Orlando City SC | 62c | 95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Orlando City SC | 53c | 72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Philadelphia Union | 80c | 52.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Philadelphia Union | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Philadelphia Union | 34c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Union | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Philadelphia Union | 70c | 24.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Orlando City SC | 58c | 21.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Orlando City SC | 65c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Philadelphia Union | 76c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.