Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4d418659e9ecbef2319a58bee486a7ece34a53e7f47a97849c12138ff3359ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 40c | 5,847$2,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,529.05 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 4,651$2,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,830.21 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 1,160$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.3 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 64c | 570.39$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.34 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 36c | 484.75$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.51 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 48c | 470.7$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.93 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 37c | 465$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.95 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 60c | 285$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 256.19$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.71 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 60c | 251$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 64c | 215.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 203.56$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 130.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 44c | 86.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 56c | 86.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 66c | 84.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 60cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 35c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Over | 66c | 72.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 60c | 57.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79cf…91abbacked Over | 35c | 49.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 60c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 73c | 34.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 64c | 28.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 61c | 27.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 65c | 16.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.