Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25800c1c029dd666ec9f317569bf1b0f4f7c06cfd7d411fb8b4021209bb7b97f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 22c | 3,466$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,710.94 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 78c | 1,716$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.45 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 22c | 1,363$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.78 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,051$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.28 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 379.29$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.11 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 79c | 284.81$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 60c | 242$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 21c | 236.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.36 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 60c | 235.75$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 222.86$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.83 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 78c | 200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 187.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.32 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 36c | 144.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 80c | 121.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -60%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 43c | 120$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 78c | 116.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 75c | 89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 13c | 86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 84.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 71c | 76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 63c | 75.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 77c | 75.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 20c | 70.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 31c | 59.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 78c | 43.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 61c | 17.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.