Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8e18e5b140584e593a5e55bce7a57f769fba219074f70f6a2264f4820202f3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 62c | 3,815$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.68 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 3,050$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.47 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 61c | 1,079$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.28 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 59c | 1,053$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 1,044$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.52 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 42c | 874.83$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 41c | 751.3$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.06 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 17c | 616$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.73 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7823backed Over | 60c | 501$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 38c | 428.5$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.6 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 310.17$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 39c | 300$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 245$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 226$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 63c | 216.43$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 38c | 207$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 190.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 59c | 168.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 62c | 154.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 41c | 141.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 111.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 70c | 97.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 62c | 89.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 54c | 87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 38c | 76.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 60c | 70.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 39c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Under | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 62c | 52.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 60c | 50.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 60c | 41.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 63c | 34.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 39c | 27.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.