TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,498
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,498 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba8d…009dbacked No12c876.33$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9660121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No25c872.03$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.596114.8%9 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes44c768.73$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.4325933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked No68c684.1$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.062231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes50c660.93$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.65,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes54c396.31$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.2713448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No17c293.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No61c275.33$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.633,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes22c266.85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.8524029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c249$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.0417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c229.1$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.62,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes36c183.04$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No76c161.42$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7998571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No74c151.06$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3602…98dfbacked Yes26c149.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.925437%20 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No70c142.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.312,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No72c141.83$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.122,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No17c135.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.342,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes78c124$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4161365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Yes49c123.3$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.53630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No11c117$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.611,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No64c116.66$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6681165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes25c112.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2386226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes22c111.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.7918837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes25c103.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.728142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9974023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No73c99.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9928839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes27c90$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.758732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes28c88.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.798,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No40c82.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.582,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No76c81.42$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes25c71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5418368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Yes29c70$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.73842.1%16 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+68.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d6d…d234backed No73c68.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50875%6 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c59.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.591,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c53.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked No75c53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405961%36 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes49c52.96$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0235854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes27c51.31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4656118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca30…7eb2backed No74c51.04$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381580%12 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No30c50.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.191,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No78c50.03$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9318272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No71c47.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb025…38bbbacked Yes30c47.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.18837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No75c46.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3712564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed Yes40c46.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9338758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Yes24c45.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2199963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff3…fab6backed Yes26c45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf075…3f43backed No78c44.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.710866.7%72 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfa3…1e24backed No56c43.17$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.210260.8%62 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c08…724fbacked No74c41.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.576073.3%44 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes50c41.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6744536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3811145%50 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…492abacked No31c37.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6517365.3%113 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No73c36.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5248672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes34c35.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1485049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2aa…3e28backed No72c34.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.785959.3%35 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No71c34.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.471,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No78c31.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8138258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No71c31.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked No78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.416626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No75c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.614671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf9…5211backed Yes48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.67065.7%46 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No77c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.14,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf9…96e1backed No78c29.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.325749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No76c29.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.211664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa048…c553backed No77c28.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221258.3%7 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick77cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.244,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No72c27.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No77c27.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0420161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked No75c26.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204766%31 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No74c24.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5317066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No76c23.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1817376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No69c22.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.710163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No74c21.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1642049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No71c21.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.981,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.273070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1026142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ed…35c4backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517861.2%109 W · 69 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f2…c2a5backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.23275%24 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.786362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dba…5b01backed No72c19.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.095766.7%38 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No55c18.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.421,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdecc…ce48backed No54c18.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101050%5 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed No76c17.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1215155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87bd…9712backed Yes78c16.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.62548%12 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe856…7347backed No75c14.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.722065%13 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick75cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.